Peace Plan for the Caucasus

Recent events in the Caucasus have highlighted the fact that there are numerous simmering animosities in the region that have remained unresolved since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is a place where society has not quite matured beyond the tribal level of thinking and acting, where groups defined by ethnicity are prone to looting and burning each other’s villages. This is a phenomenon that the West has not experienced itself for some considerable time.

The complicated ethno-territorial issues of the region were suppressed or hidden from view by the Soviets but have nevertheless simmered for centuries. This is a place where great powers have played the great game of domination since near the beginning of civilization. They sweep back and forth through here from their epicentres of power cutting a swathe of destruction and misery every time, leaving behind a legacy of territorial dispute.

Now we are seeing the next round of this game being played out between the United States and its allies in NATO and the significantly weakened successor to the Soviet Empire the Russian Federation. The Russians have been largely retreating from their peripheral territories for the last twenty years and NATO has been circling like a pack of menacing dogs nibbling away at the wounded beast. This may not be how the West views the current situation but it is certainly the viewpoint of the Russians. The Black Sea is Russia’s gateway to the Mediterranean and the United States perceived a chance to neutralize this threat forevermore by bringing the Ukraine and Georgia into the fold alongside Greece and Turkey. Brussels, NATO’s headquarters, has resisted giving full membership to these two countries for various reasons. One being the likelihood of aggravating Russia to the point where it may feel compelled to lash out and spoil everyone’s plans. Another being, as mentioned above, the fact that these people still loot and burn each other’s villages – an activity that could embroil NATO in ugly wars that could spiral into a major conflict with Russia. Slowly, slowly would be the sensible European approach.

If we are to use chess analogies the three pawns in play at the moment are Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While some might argue that this is but one pawn, Georgia, the reality is that Georgia has not controlled the other two for quite a few years now as they are clearly being played by the Russians. Georgia is the Western pawn or maybe we should consider it to be a knight as Georgia alone possesses greater power than the other two put together. The other two have fairly safe positions, being protected by Russian rooks, knights and bishops. Georgia herself appears to be protected by the US queen.

to be continued....